Forty-one runs at the same boss. The wiki says the drop rate is 8%, which means the odds of my last week happening were roughly one in thirty. I have done the math so many times the calculator app shows up in my recently used.
At some point, farming a drop stops being gameplay and starts being a devotional practice.
The math, since you asked
An 8% drop means each run is a weighted coin. Forty-one tails in a row sits at about 3.3%. Improbable, not impossible — which is exactly the kind of sentence that keeps people at slot machines.
P(no drop in 41 runs) = 0.92^41 ≈ 0.0327What the drop table actually looks like
- Common junk: 62%
- Crafting mats: 20%
- Cosmetics nobody wants: 10%
- The thing I need: 8%
This is a post about drop tables, pseudo-randomness, and the exact moment I realized the game was seeding its RNG off my save file. Run forty-two dropped it, obviously. It always drops the run after you write the blog post.
